May 2021 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Growth Continues Climb
The forces that have propelled home price growth to new highs over the past year remain in place and are offering little evidence of abating.

The forces that have propelled home price growth to new highs over the past year remain in place and are offering little evidence of abating.
The forces that have propelled home price growth to new highs over the past year remain in place and are offering little evidence of abating.
The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 16.6% year-over-year in May. Annual growth in the smaller 20-city composite index exceeded the national pace (17.0%) and annual growth in the 10-city index (16.4%) almost matched national appreciation. The annual rate of growth was faster in May than in April in all three main indices. On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, the national index was up 1.7% from April, while the 10- and 20-city indices were up 1.7% and 1.8% month-over-month, respectively.
Zillow Forecast, Released 6/29/21 | Actual Case-Shiller Indices, Released 7/27/21 |
Historical Median Absolute Error* | |
---|---|---|---|
10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.6% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
16.1% | 16.4% | 0.2% |
20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.7% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
16.5% | 17.0% | 0.1% |
U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.7% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
16.2% | 16.6% | 0.1% |
*Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow’s forecasts dating to 2011. The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014. |
The housing market’s historically tight inventory conditions finally started to ease in May, but that did little to immediately tame the record-strong home price appreciation that the market has experienced in recent months. The number available homes across the nation finally ticked up this spring, albeit from a historically low reference point, after spending most of the last year in a steady decline. Still, price pressures remain very firm and appear ready to stay that way in the months to come. Indeed, sharply-rising prices do appear to have priced out some home shoppers, particularly those looking to enter the market for the first time, and causing fatigue among would-be buyers. But overall demand for homes remains very firm, as bidding wars persist and the still-relatively few homes available for sales continue to fly off the shelves at a historically fast pace. Increased inventory levels should eventually help tame the record-high pace of price appreciation, but it’s going to take a while.
Monthly and annual growth in June as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to decelerate from May and April 2020 in all three main indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the June S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, August 24.
Index | Actual May Case-Shiller Change |
Zillow’s Forecast for the Case-Shiller June Indices |
---|---|---|
10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.7% | 1.6% |
10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
16.4% | 16.1% |
20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.8% | 1.7% |
20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
17.0% | 16.5% |
U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.7% | 1.7% |
U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
16.6% | 16.2% |
Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.