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May 2021 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Growth Continues Climb

The forces that have propelled home price growth to new highs over the past year remain in place and are offering little evidence of abating.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 16.6% year-over-year in May (non-seasonally adjusted), up from 14.8% in April.
Annual growth was up from April in both the 20-city index (to 17.0%, from 15.0%) and 10-city index (to 16.4% from 14.5%).
Phoenix (+25.9%), San Diego (24.7%) and Seattle (+23.4%) reported the highest year-over-year gains among markets in the 20-city index.

The forces that have propelled home price growth to new highs over the past year remain in place and are offering little evidence of abating.

The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 16.6% year-over-year in May. Annual growth in the smaller 20-city composite index exceeded the national pace (17.0%) and annual growth in the 10-city index (16.4%) almost matched national appreciation. The annual rate of growth was faster in May than in April in all three main indices. On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, the national index was up 1.7% from April, while the 10- and 20-city indices were up 1.7% and 1.8% month-over-month, respectively.

	Zillow Forecast, Released 6/29/21	Actual Case-Shiller Indices, nReleased 7/27/21	Historical Median Absolute Error*
10-City Composite, nMonth-Over-Month (SA)	1.6%	1.7%	0.2%
10-City Composite, nYear-Over-Year (NSA)	16.1%	16.4%	0.2%
20-City Composite, nMonth-Over-Month (SA)	1.7%	1.8%	0.2%
20-City Composite, nYear-Over-Year (NSA)	16.5%	17.0%	0.1%
U.S. National nMonth-Over-Month (SA)	1.7%	1.7%	0.1%
U.S. National nYear-Over-Year (NSA)	16.2%	16.6%	0.1%
*Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow's forecasts dating to 2011. The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014.

The housing market’s historically tight inventory conditions finally started to ease in May, but that did little to immediately tame the record-strong home price appreciation that the market has experienced in recent months. The number available homes across the nation finally ticked up this spring, albeit from a historically low reference point, after spending most of the last year in a steady decline. Still, price pressures remain very firm and appear ready to stay that way in the months to come. Indeed, sharply-rising prices do appear to have priced out some home shoppers, particularly those looking to enter the market for the first time, and causing fatigue among would-be buyers. But overall demand for homes remains very firm, as bidding wars persist and the still-relatively few homes available for sales continue to fly off the shelves at a historically fast pace. Increased inventory levels should eventually help tame the record-high pace of price appreciation, but it’s going to take a while.

Monthly and annual growth in June as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to decelerate from May and April 2020 in all three main indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the June S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, August 24.

Index	Actual May nCase-Shiller Change	Zillow's Forecast for the Case-Shiller June Indices
10-City Composite, nMonth-Over-Month (SA)	1.7%	1.6%
10-City Composite, nYear-Over-Year (NSA)	16.4%	16.1%
20-City Composite, nMonth-Over-Month (SA)	1.8%	1.7%
20-City Composite, nYear-Over-Year (NSA)	17.0%	16.5%
U.S. National nMonth-Over-Month (SA)	1.7%	1.7%
U.S. National nYear-Over-Year (NSA)	16.6%	16.2%

Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.