May Case-Shiller: Home Price Appreciation Holding Steady

Today, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) May 10- and 20-City Composites rose 4.7 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. The U.S. National Index rose 4.4 percent year-over-year. Today’s data were in line with Zillow’s forecasts, released last month.

On a seasonally adjusted (SA) monthly basis, the 10- and 20-City Composites were both down 0.2 percent. The National Index was flat month-over-month (SA). The table below shows how Zillow’s forecast compared with the actual numbers.

“It’s been a slow, languid summer for home values, with annual growth rates having pretty much leveled off over the past few months and mortgage interest rates in a kind of holding pattern,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “But consistent slowing in the rate of seasonally adjusted month-over-month growth in the Case-Shiller indices will eventually be reflected as slow-downs in year-over-year appreciation, too. Mortgage rates won’t remain in this holding pattern for much longer, and will add further downward pressure on home value appreciation as soon as they start rising. Enjoy summer while it lasts, because in just a few months, things could start getting interesting again.”

Our forecasting model incorporates previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, as well as Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure resales. To see how Zillow’s forecast of the April Case-Shiller indices compared, see our research brief from last month.