Mortgage rates fell to near the lowest level since September as recession risk began to weigh more heavily on investors’ minds.

A slew of incoming economic data point to falling inflation and a rapidly slowing U.S. economy, which investors suspect will cause the Federal Reserve to pause, or even reverse, their program of interest rate hikes. The spread between yields on the 10-year and three-month Treasury has been negative for more than two months – something that has historically indicated that a U.S. recession is highly likely. A key reading of economic activity in the services sector showed contraction in December after 30 consecutive months of growth — and that report comes on the heels of last week’s reported contraction in the manufacturing sector. Wage growth is falling and market rents are also on the decline. Combined, these signals of waning inflationary pressures and potential economic slowdowns have helped bring mortgage rates down.

But the outlook for rates remains cloudy, particularly with the December CPI report – a key read of U.S. inflation – looming. Higher-than-expected inflation figures would undoubtedly send mortgage rates back upward.