Mortgage Rates Touch Highest Levels in Four Years

After flatlining for much of the past two months, mortgage rates again moved definitively upward over the past week, touching their highest levels since January 2014.

This upward momentum suggests a growing acceptance of the underlying strength of the U.S. economy – something markets seemed to discount in recent months.

Several Fed speakers over the past week noted the strength of incoming U.S. economic data, which will be particularly important going into next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

GDP and wage data due later this week will be important metrics to watch as recent geopolitical flashpoints – from trade tensions with China to nuclear concerns with North Korea to military strikes in Syria – seem to be receding.

Other global signs also indicate economic health and stability: Last Wednesday, the Bank of Canada kept its rate for overnight lending unchanged and said the economy is “in a good place” but indicated it’s keeping a close eye on inflation. The European Central Bank is expected to set aside a plan calling for banks to raise their provisions for loan losses, and the bank’s president said the eurozone growth cycle may have peaked.

As the bond market, which underlies mortgage rates, returns to its relentless upward climb, the question will be how far it soars before investors swoop in in large enough numbers to level out rates.