After touching their lowest point in six months, mortgage rates rose over the last seven days as some key economic reports shifted the market’s outlook.

The July jobs data, released on Friday, was the main impetus for why rates reversed their downward trend and rose meaningfully higher. After a few tepid releases in recent months, the July employment figures provided the broad-based positive labor market news the economy has been waiting for. The following day, another report showed there were more job openings in June than there have been in any previous month on record. Combined, markets took the reports as an indication that the labor market is on the cusp of more significant monthly improvements. And while sustained labor market improvement is good news for economic recovery, the more immediate ramification of the reports pertaining to mortgage rates has to do with the Federal Reserve. The Fed has said for months that they will not consider tightening monetary policy until more meaningful progress is achieved in the labor market. Indeed, many Fed officials have stated that they view a slowdown in their program of asset purchases to likely be sometime this fall, and the strong jobs figures are giving those statements more weight.

So, while the uncertainty presented by the Delta variant and other factors continues to limit some upward movement to mortgage rates, the increasing likelihood of a shift in monetary policy later this year has jostled rates loose from their half-year lows.