Mortgage rates fell slightly this week, closing out the year at their lowest levels ever recorded.

A normally sleepy holiday week was chock full of political headlines, but the bond market and mortgage rates took the news in stride. The confirmation of a trade deal between the European Union and the United Kingdom as well as the long-awaited passage of a new round of fiscal stimulus in the U.S. were both met with modest movements in bond yields, helping mortgage rates stay put at their all-time lowest levels. The modest trend downward was a fitting conclusion to a year that has seen mortgage rates plunge to levels that seemed unfathomable a few years ago.

But as a new year is set to begin, some notable upward risks to mortgage rates loom. Compared to the passage of the newly-passed COVID-19 relief bill, which markets had been expecting for months, the results of two senate runoff elections in Georgia, and the possibility of more fiscal relief are both far less certain in the eyes of investors and thus could prompt sharp movements in bond yields depending on their outcomes. Until more is known on either of those fronts, meaningful movements in mortgage rates appear unlikely and rates look poised to end 2020 at their lowest levels on record.