Mortgage rates moved slightly lower this week, barely budging as markets await a signal for a more pronounced move in either direction

Rates have stayed basically flat over the past few weeks, and where they head from here is dependent on two key factors: COVID-19 cases and potential actions taken by the Federal Reserve. While COVID cases remain elevated, they are showing some early signs of plateauing – news that is undoubtedly good for the world, but could place more upward pressure on mortgage rates. The Fed, meanwhile, continues to wrestle with whether, how, and when to tighten monetary policy at a time when inflation and joblessness remains elevated. A softer-than-expected August inflation reading this week likely lowered the odds that the Fed announces any immediate moves to tighten policy at their upcoming September conference, but the fact that interest rates haven’t moved much in recent weeks indicates that investors are still waiting for more certainty.

All told, there’s a good chance that mortgage rates will move notably in the coming weeks, but the jury’s still out on which direction they’ll head.