Mortgage Rates Surge on Rising Treasury Yields, Inflation Fears

Mortgage rates surged higher this week, rising at their fastest pace in months. And in a way, this uptick was inevitable.

Rates had been holding firm in recent weeks, even as Treasury yields – which generally dictate mortgage rate movements – gradually pushed higher, leaving them with very little cushion should a strong upward move in yields occur. Sure enough, those meaningful upward movements arrived on Tuesday as Treasury yields ascended to their highest level since last March. Due in part to Wednesday’s stronger-than-expected retail sales report, the latest signal that the economy continues its gradual improvement.

Investors also appear increasingly wary that more fiscal relief and accelerating economic growth through increased vaccination rates could translate to higher inflation – something that would reduce the value of bonds’ fixed-payments, and possibly lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and place more upward pressure on yields and mortgage rates.

While that remains to be seen, as mortgage rates remain very low by historic standards, this shift in the market’s outlook seems to suggest that the days of all-time low rates may be a thing of the past.

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