Mortgage rates fell this week as the latest inflation report showed price growth cooled further in June. Bond yields and mortgage rates fell on the news. The Fed appears to be making progress on its difficult task of achieving a soft landing. Inflation is slowly and steadily receding despite stubbornly high wage growth, with strong GDP data pointing to a resilient US economy. 

Bond yields and mortgage rates that follow them depend on current inflation, expected inflation and the economic outlook.

So, despite the improvement in a key inflation measure in June, stronger-than-expected economic data and high core inflation suggest the decline in bond yields and mortgage rates could be short-lived, making subsequent downward mortgage rate moves far from a sure thing.