Mortgage rates remained flat this week, holding strong at record-low levels as the market continues to survey economic conditions in the wake of the latest coronavirus surge and wait for more definitive signs of containment. Rates have been remarkably consistent and it’s likely that will continue.

Recent economic data have generally shown what investors expected to see: Economic activity has rebounded from early-spring lows, but remains well below pre-pandemic highs. What markets don’t know is whether this latest surge in COVID-19 cases is going to send the economy careening back downward, or if any positive developments regarding the pandemic exist on the horizon. Both of these factors will impact mortgage rates going forward, with the latter likely having a larger impact. Meaningful progress on a vaccine or treatment will be what jostles rates from these long-term lows, sending them up strongly, whereas near-term bad economic news, as well as ongoing support from the Federal Reserve, will continue to apply light downward pressure on rates.

Absent any meaningful developments, it’s unlikely that rates will make significant movements.