Boosts in Wages, Inflation and Oil Prices Keep Mortgage Rates Aloft

Mortgage rates were mostly flat over the past week, holding just shy of the four-year highs they touched at the end of April. The typical 30-year fixed mortgage rate quoted on Zillow is now 4.41 percent.

Last Friday’s monthly jobs report was not stellar, but probably sufficient to keep an expected interest rate hike in June on track. Employment growth was slightly softer than expected, but the longer-term trend is consistent with a labor market at full employment. The unemployment rate edged down in an encouraging trend. Wage growth has strengthened, and incoming inflation data also point to an uptick in prices. Oil prices in particular increased sharply this week as uncertainty about the Iran nuclear deal played out. If they hold, higher oil prices should pass through to the broader inflation outlook.

Another round of inflation data will be released tomorrow morning and should confirm the recent trend. Beyond that, markets will likely watch a couple of speeches later this week and early next week by several relatively new Federal Open Market Committee voices.