Mortgage Rates Fall Following Tax Reform Bill

The prime 30-year fixed mortgage rate quoted on Zillow trended downward this past week, dropping eight basis points to an average of 3.73 percent—its lowest level since the end of September.

On Thursday (Nov. 2), House Republicans released their much-anticipated tax reform bill, which, if passed, would reduce or eliminate special interest deductions. Of particular relevance to the mortgage market is the new proposed cap on mortgage interest deductions for existing and newly purchased homes, placed at $500,000. The bill put downward pressure on rates because an elimination or decrease of the interest deduction would make borrowing less attractive.

The end of last week also marked the official nomination of Jerome Powell as the next chair of the Federal Reserve and the release of a strong jobs report, both of which had little impact on mortgage rates. The Fed chair nomination was largely anticipated, and Powell has frequently aligned himself with Yellen. As a result, Fed policy is not expected to change much over the next few years—rates hikes will likely gradually continue. Similarly, the strong jobs report last Friday came as no surprise and did little to move rates because economic data has repeatedly painted a picture of a strong and stable labor market.

This week, with no major economic releases scheduled, unscheduled events—particularly any major announcements on tax reform progress—will likely dictate movement in the market.