Stock Turbulence and Strong Economic Data Leave Mortgage Rates Flat

Mortgage rates dipped and then recovered over the past seven days, ending up in roughly the same place as where they stood a week ago. A slight downward movement of rates, driven by a tumultuous week in the stock market, was counteracted by a string of strong economic data releases and an announcement by the Treasury Department.

A frantic week in the stock market, which saw a series of sharp rises and slumps, resulted in an initial decline in rates. However, much like last week, the decrease was less than we would have expected, given the circumstances, as a series of strong economic releases – including GDP, employment costs, and private employment numbers– all came in above expectations, signaling the continued robustness of the U.S. economy.

Another buoy for rates was Wednesday morning’s publication of the Treasury Department’s plans to increase the size of its bond auctions in an effort to help fund growing fiscal deficits.

As November begins, all eyes will be on the ever-important monthly jobs report due Friday. The release often moves the market, and it could have implications for Federal Reserve rate changes over the next year. With the labor market at full employment, there have yet to be major signs that recent financial market turmoil has spilled into the real economy: core output and employment indicators remain solid, and inflation is picking up modestly and healthily. Strong wage figures could add fuel to the belief that the American economy can withstand higher rates, despite the turmoil on Wall Street and some potentially disconcerting signals such as soft housing data.