Mortgage rates fell and then rose this week, ending the last seven days where they began.

While the steady upward momentum that rates have experienced over the past couple weeks recently leveled off, markets remain cautious as a series of potentially market-moving developments loom on the immediate horizon. Chief among these is the September jobs report, due this Friday. A stronger-than-expected reading would arm the Federal Reserve with more ammunition to justify a tightening of monetary policy later this year and likely press mortgage rates higher. More broadly, the prospect of the federal government failing to raise the debt ceiling and some emerging signals that the economy is weathering the increase in COVID-19 cases is also placing upward pressure on mortgage rates. August consumer spending figures came in above expectations last week and gauges of service sector activity surprised to the upside.

The upward trend in mortgage rates petered out this week, but more increases could resume depending on how these developments play out.