Mortgage rates increased sharply this week, reaching their highest level since June.

The upward movement happened while markets digested statements from the Federal Reserve and weighed the economy’s path forward. While the markets offered a muted initial reaction to last week’s announcement by the Federal Reserve that they would likely begin to tighten monetary policy this fall, bond yields — and the mortgage rates they influence – moved firmly higher in the days that followed. The strong uptick in yields was buoyed by more aggressive policy statements made by federal banks overseas and likely reflect the market collectively reconsidering the economy path forward in an environment with elevated inflation and falling COVID-19 cases. COVID cases have steadily fallen for the past few weeks, and a continued decline would fortify the Fed’s case to tighten policy, especially if inflation remains elevated, which appears likely in the near term. Of course, much can change in a matter of months, and key readings on inflation and the labor market due in the coming weeks will provide markets with more insight on whether the Fed will follow through with its intention.

But for now, while mortgage rates remain near historic lows, the downward pressure that has kept them at bay is finally showing signs of relenting.