Mortgage rates ticked down this week, brushing off strong housing data and other encouraging news, returning to their lowest level in more than two weeks.

Aside from the impact of the ongoing rollout of the FHFA’s market refinance price adjustment, mortgage rates have been very steady for the better part of a month – and, as uncertainty regarding the policy’s implementation continues to dissipate, rates have trended slightly lower while staying within a narrow window. It appears that investors remain confident  that near-term volatility in bond markets will remain limited for now. That outlook was put to the test on Wednesday as surprising and encouraging news regarding a new fiscal relief bill pushed Treasury yields notably upwards for the first time in a while. The resulting moves in mortgage rates were minimal, but those dynamics may play out in the coming days.

More broadly, the move was a reminder that upward pressure on rates can come at any time. The next test of this may be Friday’s September jobs report, which has the potential to surprise markets with good news – or bad.