Mortgage Rates Rise Bucking Jobs Report Trend

Mortgage rates rose this week, moving higher even as the August jobs report came in well below expectations.

The jobs report tends to receive the most attention each month, and usually has some influence on mortgage rate movements. A weak report tends to nudge mortgage rates down, and a strong report pushes them upwards. However, the dynamic that followed the August report, which was released last Friday, bucked the typical trend as bond yields and mortgage rates rose upward following the disappointing report. It’s difficult to point to one specific reason for the abnormal market movements. The upward move in yields may suggest that investors are growing concerned about inflation (wages rose strongly on the month), and it could also suggest that investors are looking past the weak report, having anticipated a lackluster report given recent consumer confidence in recent weeks. More broadly, markets may have also been taking a conservative approach heading into a holiday weekend. Most likely, the market movement was a combination of several factors.

Looking ahead, inflation will continue to be top of mind for markets, with two key reports due in the coming week.