November Case-Shiller Forecast Shows Continued Growth

Similar to last month’s Zillow’s Home Value Index data, October S&P Case-Shiller data shows home prices continuing to climb.  The 10- and 20-City Indices as well as the National Case-Shiller Index grew by nearly 1 percent[1] between September and October.  Similarly all three of the indices showed annual growth rates north of 5 percent. This marks the first time in over a year the national index has grown at 5 percent annually.

When November Case-Shiller data is released a month from now, we expect the data will show continuing growth month-over-month, though not at quite the same sizzling pace.  We predict that the 10- and 20- City Indices will end November 0.5 percent above their October values (seasonally adjusted).  We expect the national index to grow slightly faster than the other two, at a rate of 0.7 percent month-over-month.

Inline with continued monthly growth we also expect all rates still above 5 percent when November data is released.  The table below shows the current changes in Case-Shiller data along with our forecasts for next month’s data.

Our forecasting model incorporates previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, as well as Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure resales.

[1] Seasonally Adjusted