November Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Gliding Back to Earth
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 18.8% year-over-year in November (non-seasonally adjusted), down from 19.0% in October.
- The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 18.8% year-over-year in November (non-seasonally adjusted), down from 19.0% in October.
- Annual growth was down from September in both the 20-city index (to 18.3%, from 18.5%) and 10-city index (to 16.8% from 17.2%).
- Annual growth was faster in November than October in 11 of the 20 markets included in the 20-city index.
The sky-high growth in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index is gliding down to earth, but insufficient for-sale inventory is like a parachute slowing the descent.
The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 18.8% year-over-year in November, down from 19.0% in October. Non-seasonally adjusted annual growth was also somewhat slower in October from October in both the smaller 20-city composite index (to 18.3%, from 18.5%) and 10-city index (to 16.8% from 17.2%). On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, the national index was up 1.1% from October, while the 10- and 20-city indices were up 1.1% and 1.2% month-over-month, respectively.
| ZILLOW FORECAST, RELEASED 12/28/21 | ACTUAL CASE-SHILLER INDICES, RELEASED 1/25/22 |
HISTORICAL MEDIAN ABSOLUTE ERROR* | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
16.7% | 16.8% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
18.3% | 18.3% | 0.1% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
0.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
18.6% | 18.8% | 0.1% |
| *Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow’s forecasts dating to 2011. The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014. | |||
House price appreciation has slowed for three consecutive months and annual growth has retreated from records set in August, but November’s pace still easily surpassed any rate reported prior to 2021. The Phoenix area continued to see fast growth, with a 32.2% year-over-year price increase, the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in November. Growth in Phoenix is being led by Maricopa and Pinal Counties. In December, the cities of Arlington, Maricopa, Arizona City, San Tan Valley and Coolidge topped the charts in the Phoenix region, each surpassing 40% annual appreciation. Thanks to demand to the area and low mortgage interest rates, a robust job market, labor and materials shortages, and a deluge of first-time home buyers, house price growth will likely continue to comfortably exceed historical averages over the next year.
Monthly growth in December as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate from November in all three major indices, and remain broadly unchanged year-over-year. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the December S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, February 22.
| INDEX | ACTUAL NOVEMBER CASE-SHILLER CHANGE |
ZILLOW’S FORECAST FOR THE CASE-SHILLER DECEMBER INDICES |
|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.2% | 0.9% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
16.8% | 16.8% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.2% | 1.5% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
18.3% | 18.4% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.1% | 1.2% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
18.8% | 18.8% |
Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.
