November 2022 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Steady Decline
Home prices continued cooling off in November as the fall freeze took over the housing market.
- The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 7.7% year-over-year in November (non-seasonally adjusted), down from 9.2% in October.
- Annual growth was slower in November than October in both the 20-city index (to 6.8% from 8.6%) and 10-city index (to 6.3% from 8.0%).
- Annual growth was slower in November than October in all markets included in the 20-city index.
Home prices continued cooling off in November as the fall freeze took over the housing market. We saw homes stay on the market longer while the flow of new listings stalled to a trickle. The same factors that have plagued the market throughout most of 2022 were still at play at the end of the year, with high mortgage rates and price growth causing a significant affordability hurdle that kept many buyers and sellers on the sidelines. As a result, the housing market – and subsequently home price growth – slowed from a sprint to a crawl.
The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 7.7% year-over-year in November, down from the rate set in October. Annual appreciation slowed in both the 10- and 20-city (non-seasonally adjusted) indices. The annual gain in the 10-city index fell from 8.0% in October to 6.3% in November and for the 20-city composite index from 8.6% to 6.8%. From October to November the national index (seasonally adjusted) stayed level at 0.3%, while the 10- and 20-city indices went to -0.5% and 0.5%, respectively.
| ZILLOW FORECAST, RELEASED 12/27/22 |
ACTUAL CASE-SHILLER INDICES, RELEASED 1/31/23 |
|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
0.4% | -0.5% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
7.1% | 6.3% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
0.5% | 0.5% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
7.7% | 6.8% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
0.3% | 0.3% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
8.3% | 7.7% |
As rates have come down in the first weeks of the new year, housing market activity has started to thaw out, but 2023 will likely still be a relatively tamer year for housing with many expecting prices to flatline at best.
Annual home price growth as reported by Case-Shiller are expected to decelerate in all three indices. Monthly appreciation in January is expected to decelerate in the national and 20-City Indices and accelerate in the 10-city Index. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the January S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, February 28.
| ACTUAL NOVEMBER CASE-SHILLER CHANGE |
ZILLOW’S FORECAST FOR THE CASE-SHILLER DECEMBER INDICES |
|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
-0.5% | 0.2% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
6.3% | 5.3% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
0.5% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
6.8% | 5.6% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
0.3% | 0.0% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
7.7% | 6.4% |
Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.
