November Existing Home Sales: Ending Where They Started

• November existing home sales rose 1.9% from October, to 6.46 million (SAAR), according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were down 2% from November 2020.
• The median price of an existing home sold last month was up 13.9% year-over-year, to $353,900.
• Inventory of unsold homes decreased 13.3% to 1.1 million – equivalent to 2.1 months of the monthly sales pace.

Existing home sales grew modestly in November, and after an up and down year, the seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of sales looks set to end 2021 at roughly the same level as it started. Record-fast monthly home price appreciation at the start the year may have contributed to four straight monthly sales declines that kicked off 2021, likely discouraging buyers unaccustomed to such rapid gains and holding back sellers worried about potentially missing out on future price growth. This monthly growth rate peaked in July, buyers and sellers acclimated to these higher prices, and existing home sales climbed in the three months since August. Monthly appreciation slowed a bit further in November, which should invite more buyers, but for-sale inventory also dropped last month, so the increase in sales could be meager. Existing home sales will rise in 2022 thanks to low mortgage rates, a healthy labor market and moderating house price growth, but the series is likely to fall short of the all-time highs that it reached in 2005, just prior to the housing crash.