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Rapid Reaction: November Existing Home Sales
November marked the third month in a row in which sales strongly beat expectations, showing strength despite an early Thanksgiving that might have otherwise delayed some closings and ushered in the start of the typically slower holiday season.
- November existing home sales rose a stronger than expected 5.6 percent from October, to 5.81 million (SAAR), and are up 3.8 percent over last year. November was the strongest month on record since December 2006.
- Inventory continues to tighten, falling 7.2 percent from October (non-seasonally adjusted) and 9.7 percent from a year ago, the 30th straight month of annual declines.
- The median price of existing homes sold in November was $248,000 (non-seasonally adjusted), up 5.8 percent from a year ago.
November marked the third month in a row in which sales strongly beat expectations, showing strength despite an early Thanksgiving that might have otherwise delayed some closings and ushered in the start of the typically slower holiday season. Much of the last month’s surge looks to have been driven by a big spike in sales of condos and coops, which may be revised down in coming months. Still, similar to this spring, when sales consistently beat forecasts despite very low inventory, we could be seeing shifting seasonal home shopping patterns — buyers determined to make a deal could be staying on the market well into the autumn and winter months. The introduction of preliminary tax reform plans earlier in the month – which included changes to several existing tax policies beneficial to many current homeowners – may have pushed up sales, encouraging some buyers to push purchases forward in order to be grandfathered in to existing laws. As 2017 winds down, the home sales market is ending the year on strong note. The housing market is on relatively stable ground, despite the ongoing inventory squeeze and difficult conditions for buyers at the lower ends of the market in particular. The labor market is as strong as it has been in recent memory, with the unemployment rate at its lowest since 1999 and more jobs being added each month. Wages are growing consistently and low mortgage interest rates are keeping homes affordable – and those fundamentals look set to continue into 2018, keeping home buying demand high.