October Case-Shiller Forecast: Continuing to put the Recession in the Rearview

According to Zillow’s October Case-Shiller forecast, annual growth in the national index is expected to continue to accelerate, along with upticks in monthly growth in both smaller 10-city and 20-city indices. Sustained growth in the national index will continue to put pre-recession housing peaks in the rearview mirror, as September marked the first month in which national home prices exceeded those set prior to the recession.

The September Case-Shiller national index is expected to grow 5.7 percent year-over-year and 0.8 percent month-to-month (seasonally adjusted), even with the pace of monthly growth and up from 5.5 percent annual growth pace set in September. We expect the 10-city index to grow 4.2 percent year-over-year and 0.4 percent (SA) from September. The 20-City Index is expected to grow 5 percent between October 2015 and October 2016, and rise 0.5 percent (SA) from Septmber.

Zillow’s October Case-Shiller forecast is shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today’s September Case-Shiller data release and the October 2016 Zillow Home Value Index. The October S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices will not be officially released until Tuesday, December 27.