• Zillow expects existing home sales to increase 2.5 percent in October from September, rising to 5.52 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) as late-summer weather-related volatility wanes.
• New home sales should fall 9 percent after a surprisingly strong September, to 607,000 units (SAAR), in line with levels seen throughout much of 2017.

Home sales likely moved past late-summer weather disruptions in October, with both existing and new home sales reverting to recent norms.

Home sales were particularly volatile in August and September as markets reeled from the effects of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which hit the Southeast in late August and early September. We expect the effects of the storms subsided in October. Our forecast predicts existing home sales rose 2.5 percent from September, to 5.52 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), their highest level since June and up 1.7 percent above their October 2016 level.[1] Prices of existing homes are expected to fall 0.8 percent from September, to $243,700, up 2.4 percent from a year ago.

After a surprisingly strong September, we expect new home sales[2] to drop 9 percent in October to 607,000 units (SAAR), returning to levels seen throughout much of 2017. This would put new home sales up 5.2 percent over the year. As home builders start to focus on more affordable market segments, we expect the median seasonally adjusted price of new homes sold in October to be flat from September, around $316,000.

[1] The National Association of Realtors (NAR) will report existing home sales on Tuesday, November 21.

[2] The U.S. Census Bureau will report new home sales on Monday, November 27.