October New Home Sales: Poised for a Breakout 2022
New home sales may be set for a breakout 2022 if and when ongoing labor and supply shortages pass.

New home sales may be set for a breakout 2022 if and when ongoing labor and supply shortages pass.
Though October new home sales came in slightly above the previous month’s rate, the report missed expectations because September’s estimate was revised sharply lower. However, the series may be set for a breakout 2022 if and when ongoing labor and supply shortages pass. New home sales are down from pandemic-boosted highs set last year as buyers emerged from lockdowns and flooded the housing market, but remain well-above pre-pandemic norms and have grown almost twice as fast as the average two-year pace since 2019. While buyers remain abundant, builders are fighting against supply chain disruptions and scarce workers — a record share of builders are reporting labor shortages, according to the National Association of Home Builders. In the face of these challenges, the number of housing starts declined in each of the last two monthly reports, so new home sales could remain stalled through the end of year. But permit activity remains robust, and if builders overcome these shortages in labor and raw materials as expected, construction will likely be boosted in 2022 by new federal spending, low unemployment and favorable demographics.