• October new home sales fell 1.9 percent from September to 563,000 units (SAAR), according tot he U.S. Census Bureau. New home sales were up 17.8 percent year-over-year. For each of the past three months (September, August, July), initially reported data has been revised sharply downward in subsequent months.
• Inventory of new homes on the market rose 2.9 percent from September and 9.3 percent from a year ago, reaching its highest level since September 2009. Still, new home inventory remains a whopping 57 percent below its July 2006 peaks.
• The median, seasonally adjusted price of new homes sold in October rose 1.3 percent from September and 2.1 percent from a year ago, to $310,300. After falling year-over-year for two straight months to end the summer, the median price of existing homes sold has risen in each of the past two months.

The new home sales market continues to underwhelm, taking baby steps forward and baby steps backward from month-to-month when what we really need to see are giant leaps. To make a meaningful dent in the chronic inventory shortage the overall market is experiencing, we need to see new home sales levels consistently closer to the 1 million per year range, and we’re just nowhere near that right now. It’s a bit like we’re playing ball on a little league field — we get excited when we hit what looks like a home run in a given month, but in a “normal” park it would be a single at best. Consistent downward revisions to prior months’ data certainly doesn’t help, either. In hindsight, it’s clear that the marks hit consistently during the boom years were too lofty and aren’t accurate benchmarks to shoot for, but it’s equally clear that recent performance also isn’t nearly enough. New homes currently spend about 3 months on the market, near all-time lows and an indicator of strong demand. Much more must be done to meet that demand if the market is to really re-balance and shift more in favor of buyers badly in need of a breather.