October Case-Shiller: Home Prices Continue to Climb

This morning, all three of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed annual growth north of 5 percent.  The 20-City Composite index rose 5.5 percent from October 2014 through October 2015.  Trailing slightly, the 10-City Composite and National Case-Shiller indices grew at 5.1 and 5.2 percent respectively.

Of the three indices, the national index saw the largest growth from last month.  On a seasonally-adjusted basis the national index grew 0.9 percent from September. Over a month ago, Zillow predicted the national index would show an increase of 0.8 percent between September and October.

Below are Zillow’s forecasts, released last month, along with the actual Case-Shiller changes released today. All three Case-Shiller indices show that home prices grew nearly a full percent from a month ago.  Last month’s Zillow Home Value Index data showed similar trends in home value growth, which has continued to accelerate throughout 2015.

The U.S. housing market as a whole made great progress in 2015, as the big and occasionally volatile bounce off the bottom we experienced from 2012 through 2014 gave way to a more stable and sustainable environment.

But despite this relative stability, there are still a number of housing challenges likely to shape the market in 2016 and beyond. The median age of first-time homebuyers will reach new highs next year as more millennials delay key life decisions and stay in rental housing longer. This is likely to help rents keep rising, though at a slower pace than we’ve seen, which will contribute to worsening rental affordability. And the prospect of rising mortgage interest rates will make buying a home modestly more expensive, too. For those that can qualify for a loan and find a home within their budget, relatively affordable suburbs with walkable amenities and good access to the city will become increasingly attractive, particularly for young families.

Our forecasting model incorporates previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, as well as Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure resales.