Rapid Reaction: Oct. Existing Home Sales

• Existing home sales fell 3.4 percent in October from September, to 5.36 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate), according to the National Association of Realtors.
• Today's data continues the see-saw pattern of recent months: A big drop in August, followed by a big rise in September and now a big drop in October.
• The median price of homes sold in October rose 5.8 percent year-over-year to $219,600.

Existing home sales have been on a bit of a rollercoaster ride the past few months: Down in August, up big in September and now down again in October. Inventory of homes for sale remains very tight, down 4.5 percent year-over-year, according to NAR, which is helping to keep prices rising. Looking ahead, we expect existing sales volumes to remain in roughly this range through the end of the year and into the early part of 2016. In recent months, existing and new home sales have moved in opposite directions: When one has gone up, the other has gone down. That pattern should hold true again when new home sales data is released Wednesday – today’s decline in existing sales should be followed by an increase in new home sales. Our current forecast calls for a 5.3 percent month-over-month jump in new home sales, to roughly 493,000 units.