September brought about high interest rates and slowing sales, which continued to slow home price growth annually. On a monthly level, home prices continued to drop. While buyers are stepping aside waiting for more affordable prices and rates – causing the slowdown on price growth – would-be sellers are sticking their ground and holding tight to the inventory they currently own.
September brought about high interest rates and slowing sales, which continued to slow home price growth annually. On a monthly level, home prices continued to drop. While buyers are stepping aside waiting for more affordable prices and rates – causing the slowdown on price growth – would-be sellers are sticking their ground and holding tight to the inventory they currently own. As a result, prices might not continue to plunge down as much as some projections anticipate— as the available inventory of homes on the market is constrained.
The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 10.6% year-over-year in September, down from the rate set in August. Annual appreciation slowed in both the 10- and 20-city (non-seasonally adjusted) indices. The annual gain in the 10-city index fell from 12.1% in August to 9.7% in September and for the 20-city composite index from 13.1% to 10.4%. From August to September the national index (seasonally adjusted) fell to -0.8%, while the 10- and 20-city indices were down -1.2% and -1.2%, respectively.
| ZILLOW FORECAST, RELEASED 10/25/22 | ACTUAL CASE-SHILLER INDICES, RELEASED 11/29/22 |
|
|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
0.3% | -1.2% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
11.3% | 9.7% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
0.4% | -1.2% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
12.2% | 10.4% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
-0.5% | -0.8% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
11.3% | 10.6% |
Interest rates will continue to play a vital role in this market, as their movement can lock and unlock opportunities for many potential buyers, and inventory flowing from sellers and new construction will help determine the speed of the changes in the market.
Annual home price growth as reported by Case-Shiller are expected to decelerate in all three indices. Monthly appreciation in October is expected to decelerate. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the October S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, December 27.
| INDEX | ACTUAL SEPTEMBER CASE-SHILLER CHANGE |
ZILLOW’S FORECAST FOR THE CASE-SHILLER OCTOBER INDICES |
|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
-1.2% | 0.4% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
9.7% | 8.7% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
-1.2% | 0.5% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
10.4% | 9.5% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
-0.8% | -0.2% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
10.6% | 9.5% |
Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.
