According to dual surveys released by Zillow, most economists and homeowners agree they would not strategically default if faced with a deeply underwater mortgage.
Nearly three-quarters of economists surveyed in the June 2012 Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey (71 percent) said they would not strategically default, even if they owed on their mortgage at least 40 percent more than the current value of their home. Nearly 75 percent of homeowners in the U.S. with an underwater mortgage are underwater by 40 percent or more, according to Zillow’s first quarter Negative Equity Report.
Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries said he was initially surprised that so few economists would be willing to strategically default, as it can be a very mathematically appealing option. “Of course, strategic default is not just a mathematical decision. The most common reason for avoiding strategic default cited by homeowners was that it is a moral issue. That likely comes into play with economists and analysts, as well,” Humphries said.
In a separate Zillow survey conducted by Ipsos, 59 percent of homeowners said they would not make the decision to strategically default if they were underwater on their home by more than 40 percent. When asked why homeowners wouldn’t choose to strategically default, 37 percent of homeowners cited moral reasons, while 35 percent indicated it didn’t make sense given that they intended to live in their current home for a long time.
Full results for this secondary portion of the Home Price Expectation Survey can be found here. The Home Price Expectation Survey was conducted from May 31-June 14, 2012 by Pulsenomics LLC on behalf of Zillow, Inc. and compiles 114 responses from a diverse group of economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists.