Today, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) October 10- and 20-City Composites each rose 13.6 percent on a year-over-year basis, in line with Zillow’s forecast released last month. On a seasonally adjusted (SA) monthly basis, the 10- and 20-City Composites each rose 1.0 percent from September to October. The table below shows how Zillow’s forecast compared with the actual numbers.

“As 2013 ends, all signs point to a slowdown in appreciation. But the Case-Shiller indices continue to show extreme home value gains that almost defy explanation,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “The likely culprits are twofold: the indices use home price data from a three-month moving average, which dilutes the more recent signals of a slowdown, and they include foreclosure resales, which register high home value appreciation when they are subsequently resold by a non-bank owner. The broader market is cooling off, and consumers looking at more recent reports should embrace this slowdown, as it will make for a more balanced market in 2014 and beyond.”

Our forecasting model incorporates previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, as well as Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure resales. To see how Zillow’s forecast of the September Case-Shiller indices compared, see our blog post from last month.

To see our forecast for the November Case-Shiller indices, click here.