August Case-Shiller Results and September Forecast: A Slowdown in Home Prices

• The U.S. National S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index® — which tracks home prices — rose 5.8 percent in August from a year earlier, just 0.1 percentage point below Zillow’s forecast last month.
• The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city index climbed 5.5 percent annually in August, down from 5.9 percent in July. The 10-city index rose 5.1 percent, down from 5.5 percent.
• Zillow forecasts an even slower 5.5 percent annual gain for September.

The Case-Shiller home price index climbed 5.8 percent in August from a year earlier, marking the first time in 12 months that home price gains have dropped below 6 percent.

It’s more welcome news for would-be home buyers, who must be breathing a collective sigh of relief that home price growth finally has slowed. Softening appreciation after the rapid growth of just a few months earlier is a sign that fierce competition is dying down. Potential buyers who were intimidated during the heat of the market may find the breathing space now to make a calm, considered decision about whether to lock in a mortgage before rates rise further.

For some buyers, the coming months could represent a sweet spot – a time of slower price growth and relatively easier home shopping before mortgage rates climb even higher. Eventually, rising rates will gobble up the advantage of slowing price growth and substantially reduce buyers’ budgets. Already, mortgage payments are outpacing home value growth. Winter is typically a slower, and less expensive, time for home buyers, but that very seasonality – along with rising mortgage rates, a growing share of price cuts and the potential for future rent increases – could make homes in certain markets particularly ripe for buying as winter approaches.

Some potential buyers may wait, enjoying a rare national decline in rents and watching for the right home to come on the market. They also might not like what they see this winter, if it’s homes left from earlier in the year that were overpriced or are otherwise undesirable.

Zillow's forecasts that Case-Shiller's September index will show a 5.5% year-over-year gain in home prices nationally.

Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.