Blue County Home Values Crashed Harder, Recovered Stronger

Homes in counties that voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election experienced a bigger boom, bust and recovery than homes in counties that voted for President Donald Trump. That has begun to change somewhat during the past two years.

Compared to where they stood when President Barack Obama was first elected president in November 2008, homes in counties that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 were on average up 10.6 percent by the 2016 presidential election. Over the same period, homes in counties that voted for President Trump were up 6.9 percent.

Following the 2016 presidential election, homes in counties that voted for Hillary Clinton and President Donald Trump fared very similarly until earlier this year. Appreciation was almost exactly in parallel in the two sets of counties until this summer, when homes in counties that voted for Hillary Clinton began to outpace homes in counties that voted for President Donald Trump. As of August 2018, homes in counties that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 were 10.9 percent above where they stood in November 2016, while homes in counties that voted for President Donald Trump were 9.7 percent above where they stood when he was elected.

In general, urban and suburban counties had an exaggerated boom and bust during the financial crisis, but they also led the U.S. economy out of the economic crisis. Rural areas have begun to catch up more recently, but suburban counties adjacent to pricey cities have seen the fastest home value growth recently, perhaps accounting for the diverging trends.