Breakeven Horizon Shortens Nationally, But Still Lengthening in Most Major Metros

Even as the national Breakeven Horizon edged down by a couple months to 1.8 years in the second quarter 2017, most of the country’s major metro areas experienced an increase in their Breakeven Horizons – which is the amount of time you’d need to own a home before buying that same home made more sense than renting it. Nationally, it now takes 1.8 years of renting before buying a home is the better financial prospect.

In San Jose, Calif., the Breakeven Horizon climbed the most among the country’s largest 50 metro areas over the past year: 1.25 years since the second quarter 2016, to 4.9 years. That means it takes 4.9 years of renting in San Jose before buying a home there is a better prospect – but not because rents in San Jose are affordable: The median rent is $3,600 a month, among the highest in the country. It’s just that the median home value is even less affordable: at $992,144, it contributes to an outsized price-to-rent ratio of 23.

For comparison, Oklahoma City experienced the second-largest Breakeven Horizon increase among the top 50 markets – a substantial jump of 1.06 years to 2.7 years for the second quarter 2017. Yet, its price-to-rent ratio is less than half San Jose’s, at 10. Oklahoma City’s median rent is $1,195, and its median home value is $140,490. While this modest price-to-rent ratio is a bit larger than last year, the biggest change for Oklahoma was a softening of forecasted home price appreciation.

Metros that saw the biggest annual declines in their Breakeven Horizons were San Diego, with a drop of almost eight months to 2.8 years, and New York, with a decrease of a little more than six months to 2.1 years.