New shelter inflation numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are to be released on Thursday, September 11, 2025 at 8:30 ET.

Key Takeaway

CPI housing inflation measures should moderate significantly through late 2025 and 2026, driven by a sharp deceleration in market rents over the last few months.

The Forecast

Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER)

Owner’s Equivalent Rent, which measures what homeowners would theoretically pay to rent their own homes, is projected to have increased 0.23% in August 2025 (95% confidence interval: 0.12% – 0.34%), lower than July’s 0.28% pace. However, we expect this measure to decelerate meaningfully over the coming months.

Annual outlook: We now forecast OER to end the year up 3.3% year-over-year, followed by a dramatic downshift to a 1.6% increase in 2026. In July, the OER index was up 4.1% year-over-year.

Rent of Primary Residence

Rent of Primary Residence, which tracks rent payments, is projected to have increased 0.26% in August (95% confidence interval: 0.13% – 0.30%), unchanged from 0.26% in July.

Annual outlook: We now forecast the Rent of Primary Residence index to end the year up 2.9% year-over-year, before decelerating sharply to a 1.2% increase in 2026. In July, the Rent of Primary Residence index was up 3.5% year-over-year.

Zillow’s expectations for on-market rent growth in 2025 remained relatively unchanged: single-family rent expected to decelerate to 2.6% annually, while annual apartment rent increases should slow to 0.9%.

Importantly, the shelter components of the CPI continue to increase at a faster pace than these on-market rent trends, reflecting not only new lease pricing but also rent changes for renewing and longer-term tenants.

Methodology 

These forecasts are based on predictions from a model that makes explicit the relationship between on market rents (measured by the Zillow’s Observed Rent Index) and the shelter components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). 

The model incorporates:

• Expected on-market rent growth (Zillow’s Observed Rent Forecast, ZORF) 
• Assumptions about how landlords adjust rents at lease renewal 
• Renter mobility rates, which determine what share of tenants face a market rent increase.