New shelter inflation numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are scheduled to be released on Thursday, December 18, 2025 at 8:30 ET. Because a lapse in funding led to gaps in October data collection, this release is not expected to include official month-over-month estimates. The Bureau of Labor Statistics cannot retroactively collect the missing October data and won’t provide guidance on how users should fill the gap. We report our expectations of what would have been reported for October and November using data available up to September and our measurements of market rents.

Key Takeaway

CPI housing inflation measures are expected to continue moderating into 2026, driven by the deceleration in market rents over recent months. Expectations for a stagnant job market and marginally lower interest rates also contribute to a flatter outlook for housing costs.

The Forecast

Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER)

Owner’s Equivalent Rent, which measures what homeowners would theoretically pay to rent their own homes, is projected to have increased 0.31% in November 2025 (95% confidence interval: 0.18% – 0.45%), much higher than the 0.13% pace reported in September, but in line with the gradual slowing over the course of 2025. This is expected to bring the index value to 433.57 (±0.59). We expect the monthly growth to continue trending downward over the next year.

Annual outlook: We now forecast OER to end the year up 3.6% year-over-year. OER is expected to decelerate further, increasing just 2.6% in 2026. In September, the OER index was up 3.8% year-over-year.

Rent of Primary Residence

Rent of Primary Residence, which tracks rent payments, is projected to have increased 0.25% in November (95% confidence interval: 0.07% – 0.42%), higher than the 0.20% reported in September, but still consistent with the downward trend this year. This is expected to bring the index value to 440.22 (±0.77).

Annual outlook: We forecast the Rent of Primary Residence index to end the year up 3.0% year-over-year, before decelerating to a 1.6% increase in 2026. In September, the Rent of Primary Residence index was up 3.4% year-over-year.

Market Rents

Zillow’s expectations for on-market rent growth in 2025 remained relatively unchanged: single-family rent growth is expected to decelerate to 2.8% annually, while annual apartment rent increases should slow to 1.4%. Both measures are forecast to slow further in 2026, falling to 1.6% and -1.0% rent growth, respectively.

The shelter components of the CPI continue to increase at a faster pace than these on-market rent trends, reflecting not only new lease pricing but also rent changes for renewing and longer-term tenants.

Methodology 

These forecasts are based on predictions from a model that makes explicit the relationship between on market rents (measured by the Zillow’s Observed Rent Index) and the shelter components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). 

The model incorporates:

• Expected on-market rent growth (Zillow’s Observed Rent Forecast, ZORF) 
• Assumptions about how landlords adjust rents at lease renewal 
• Renter mobility rates, which determine what share of tenants face a market rent increase.