Zillow: CPI Shelter Forecast, March 2026
Zillow forecasts 2.5% rent inflation, 3.0% OER inflation annually in March, as measured by the Consumer Price Index.
Update Following 04/10/2026 CPI Release:
Overall inflation jumped in March to its highest monthly rate since June 2022. But inflation in HOUSING is still softening, lower on an annual and quarterly basis.
OER rose 0.28% m/m, 3.10% y/y (vs. our forecast of 0.21% and 3.02%).
Rent of Primary Residence rose 0.19% m/m, 2.56% y/y (vs. our forecast of 0.17% and 2.55%).
Other shelter components (including hotels and household insurance) left overall shelter up 0.27% on the month.
The energy-driven inflation did not leak into housing, which is unsurprising over the course of a single month. The small monthly increases in OER and Rent were actually even less extreme than recent monthly variation. Other indicators still support cooling inflation over 2026.
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New shelter inflation numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are scheduled to be released on Friday, April 10, 2025 at 8:30 ET.
Key Takeaway
CPI housing inflation measures are expected to continue moderating through 2026, driven by the deceleration in market rents. Expectations for greater rental supply and a stagnant job market also support a flatter outlook for housing costs.
The Forecast
| Period | Owners’ Equivalent Rent | Rent of Primary Residence | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month-over-month | Year-over-year | Month-over-month | Year-over-year | |||||
| Forecast | Actual | Forecast | Actual | Forecast | Actual | Forecast | Actual | |
| October 2025 | 0.22% | X | 3.56% | X | 0.19% | X | 3.27% | X |
| November 2025 | 0.31% | X | 3.62% | 3.36% | 0.25% | X | 3.27% | 2.97% |
| December 2025 | 0.27% | 0.31% | 3.25% | 3.36% | 0.21% | 0.27% | 2.93% | 2.92% |
| January 2026 | 0.26% | 0.22% | 3.29% | 3.26% | 0.21% | 0.25% | 2.78% | 2.84% |
| February 2026 | 0.18% | 0.22% | 3.14% | 3.19% | 0.19% | 0.13% | 2.74% | 2.68% |
| March 2026 | 0.21% | — | 3.02% | — | 0.17% | — | 2.55% | — |
| + + + | + + + | + + + | + + + | + + + | + + + | + + + | + + + | + + + |
| December 2026 | 0.13% | — | 2.39% | — | 0.12% | — | 2.15% | — |
Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER)
Monthly outlook: Owner’s Equivalent Rent, which measures what homeowners would theoretically pay to rent their own homes, is projected to have increased 0.21% in March 2026 (95% confidence interval: 0.09% – 0.33%) continuing the trend of gradual slowing into the new year. This would bring the annual increase in the index to 3.02%, a slight moderation from 3.19% in February. We expect the monthly growth to continue trending downward to a 0.13% pace over the year.
Annual outlook: We forecast OER to rise 2.39% over 2026, a slowdown from the 2025 increase.
Rent of Primary Residence
Monthly outlook: Rent of Primary Residence, which tracks rent payments, is projected to have increased 0.17% in March 2026 (95% confidence interval: 0.04% – 0.31%), continuing the downward trend. This would bring the annual increase in the index to 2.55%, a slight moderation from 2.68% in February. We expect the monthly growth to continue trending downward to a 0.12% pace over the year.
Annual outlook: We forecast the Rent of Primary Residence index to rise 2.15% over 2026, a substantial slowdown from the 2025 increase.
Market Rents
Single-family: Zillow’s expectations for on-market rent growth for single-family units were revised up: single-family rents are now expected to moderate to a 1.8% year-over-year increase by the end of 2026.
Multifamily: Zillow’s expectations for on-market rent growth for apartments were revised up: multifamily rents are expected to moderate to a 0.8%year-over-year increase by the end of 2026.
The shelter components of the CPI continue to increase at a faster pace than these on-market rent trends, reflecting not only new lease pricing but also rent changes for renewing and longer-term tenants.
Methodology
These forecasts are based on predictions from a model that makes explicit the relationship between on market rents (measured by the Zillow’s Observed Rent Index) and the shelter components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The model incorporates:
- Expected on-market rent growth (Zillow’s Observed Rent Forecast, ZORF)
- Assumptions about how landlords adjust rents at lease renewal
- Renter mobility rates, which determine what share of tenants face a market rent increase.
