Forecast for New and Existing Home Sales (August 2018)

Summer 2018 is poised to post a weak string of existing and new home sales when August data are released over the next two weeks: We expect both series to show month-over-month declines for the third month in a row.

Zillow expects existing home sales to fall 0.4 percent in August from July, to 5.32 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), when the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports the latest existing home sales numbers this Thursday, Sept. 20.

Existing home sales have been stagnant over the past year and a half – but in July they edged down to the lower end of their recent range. Our forecast suggests that existing home sales fell again, by 1.9 percent from a year ago. It would be the slowest pace of existing home sales since August 2016.

New home sales also should dip, declining 1.6 percent from July, to 617,000 units (SAAR), when the U.S. Census Bureau reports August new home sales on Wedn., Sept. 26.

New home sales surged in late 2017, but over the first half of 2018 have been stagnant if not trending downward. Our prediction for an August dip puts new home sales toward the bottom of its recent range.

They would still be up 10.6 percent from August 2017, but unless we see an unexpectedly strong surge in new home sales in September, the year-over-year pace in new home sales will converge to zero with the next round of monthly new home sales data.