Forecast for Existing and New Home Sales (October 2018)

• Zillow expects existing home sales to fall 0.5 percent in October from September to 5.13 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).
• New home sales should rise 2.9 percent in October from September, to 569,000 units (SAAR).

After an unexpectedly sharp drop in September, we expect existing home sales extended their six-month long decline, falling 0.5 percent in October to 5.13 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). The September drop was likely the result, at least in part, of hurricane related disruptions in the Southeast, although the observed decline was substantially larger than what can be attributed to natural disasters alone. By our estimate, it was the slowest month for existing home sales in almost three years, since November 2015.

Another decline in October would put existing home sales down 6.8 percent year-over-year – the largest drop in existing home sales since February 2014.

The median price of existing homes sold in October should fall 0.3 percent from September to $257,800.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) will report existing home sales on Wednesday, November 21.

New home sales also have trended downward since the spring, including four consecutive month-over-month declines since June. We expect an ever-so-modest turnaround in new home sales in October, forecasting a 2.9 percent increase from September to 569 units (SAAR). Our forecast still would put new home sales down 7.9 percent from the same time last year. The median price of new homes sold in October should rise 1.1 percent from September to $325,700.

The U.S. Census Bureau will report new home sales on Wednesday, November 28.