Forecasts for Existing and New Home Sales (April 2019)

• Zillow expects April existing home sales to climb 4.2% from March to 5.42 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). That would be flat from April 2018.
• We estimate new home sales will rise 1.9% from March to 705,000 units (SAAR)—which would be up 11.4% from April 2018.

Recent months have been challenging for U.S. home sales, but signs of recovery in the sector are emerging. The sector is still recovering from a dismal fall and winter in which home sales stalled amid climbing mortgage rates, poor stock market performance and a government shutdown. After an encouraging report in February, existing sales took another step backward in March—but subsequent economic and housing market signals suggest that home sales are improving and prepared for more growth. April’s figures should offer more evidence of that rebound.

We expect existing home sales posted a solid rebound in April, rising 4.2% from March to 5.4 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). That total is essentially the same as the April 2018 figure.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) will report existing home sales figures on Tuesday, May 21.

The outlook for new home sales has been more optimistic of late. Through the first three months of 2019, more new homes were sold than in the same period in 2018.  Home price growth is finally slowing as builders finally build smaller, more affordable homes and price cuts become more common. The sector is not yet back to full strength, but recent history suggests an optimistic future.

We expect new home sales decreased 0.6% in April to 688,000 units (SAAR) – up 8.7% from April 2018’s reading which, at the time, was a step backward from a month prior.

The U.S. Census Bureau is scheduled to report April 2019 new home sales on Thursday, May 23.