July 2022 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Rebalancing Power
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 15.8% year-over-year in July (non-seasonally adjusted), down from 18.1% in June.
- The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 15.8% year-over-year in July (non-seasonally adjusted), down from 18.1% in June.
- Annual growth was slower in July than June in both the 20-city index (to 16.1%, from 18.7%) and 10-city index (to 14.9% from 17.4%).
- Annual growth was slower in July than June in all markets included in the 20-city index
While the summer heat was in full swing in July, the housing market had other plans with a chilling wind of declining home values settling in. National home values were still increasing on a double-digit basis over last year, but at a much slower rate than in the spring. Affordability constraints have set in motion a rebalancing of power in the housing market.
| ZILLOW FORECAST, RELEASED 8/31/22 | ACTUAL CASE-SHILLER INDICES, RELEASED 9/27/22 |
|
|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
0.7% | -0.5% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
16.0% | 14.9% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
0.7% | -0.4% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
17.1% | 16.1% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
0.3% | -0.2% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
15.9% | 15.8% |
A dip in demand from buyers being priced out of the market as mortgage rates soar is causing homes to stay on the market longer and home price growth to moderate. Many would-be sellers are locked into low rates that make a move up to a much costlier mortgage a difficult transition, keeping inventory low. This rebalancing is putting more power in the hands of affluent buyers who can afford to stay active in the for-sale market, with more time to make crucial decisions, less competition, and more negotiating power than at any time in the past several years.
Annual home price growth as reported by Case-Shiller are expected to slow in all three indices. Monthly appreciation in August is expected to accelerate. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the August S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, September 27.
| INDEX | ACTUAL JULY CASE-SHILLER CHANGE |
ZILLOW’S FORECAST FOR THE CASE-SHILLER AUGUST INDICES |
|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
-0.5% | 0.4% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
14.9% | 13.7% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
-0.4% | 0.5% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
16.1% | 14.8% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
-0.2% | -0.1% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
15.8% | 13.8% |
Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.
