June Case-Shiller Results and July Forecast: Phoenix Posts Largest YoY Gains
Would-be buyers stand with pre-approved mortgages in hand. However, they’ve become unwilling to pay escalating prices for the relatively low inventory of homes that are on the market and instead are making sellers wait and even drop list prices.
- U.S. home prices rose 3.1% in June from a year earlier.
- Phoenix replaced Las Vegas as the city with the largest year-over-year gains.
- Six cities in Case-Shiller's® 20-city composite reported higher price increases for the year ended June 2019 than the year ended May 2019.
Annual home price gains continued their gradual slowdown in June, although the pace of those declines has slowed from earlier this year. While prices are still climbing, the rate of annual appreciation appears to have leveled off near its long-term average, after consistently falling from a high point reached in the spring of last year.
Phoenix, Las Vegas and Tampa posted the largest year-over-year gains in Case-Shiller's 20-city composite with increases of 5.8%, 5.5% and 4.7%, respectively.
Housing demand remains strong as buyers are encouraged by rising wages and by mortgage rates that just keep falling amid growing economic uncertainty. Would-be buyers stand with pre-approved mortgages in hand. However, they’ve become unwilling to pay escalating prices for the relatively low inventory of homes that are on the market and instead are making sellers wait and even drop list prices.
| Index | Zillow Forecast, Released 7/30/19 | Actual Case-Shiller Indices, nReleased 8/27/19 | Historical Median Absolute Error* |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, nMonth-Over-Month (SA) | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 10-City Composite, nYear-Over-Year (NSA) | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, nMonth-Over-Month (SA) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, nYear-Over-Year (NSA) | 2.2% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| U.S. National nMonth-Over-Month (SA) | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| U.S. National nYear-Over-Year (NSA) | 3.4% | 3.1% | 0.1% |
| *Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow's forecasts dating to 2011. The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014. |
Recent increases in sales volume suggest that the housing market has some fight left. As long as signs of growing economic uncertainty do not dissuade people from entering the market, this slower pace of home price appreciation should hold steady as we enter the second half of 2019.
| Index | Actual June nCase-Shiller Change | Zillow's forecast for the Case-Shiller July nIndices |
|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, nMonth-Over-Month (SA) | 0.0% | -0.2% |
| 10-City Composite, nYear-Over-Year (NSA) | 1.8% | 1.6% |
| 20-City Composite, nMonth-Over-Month (SA) | 0.0% | -0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, nYear-Over-Year (NSA) | 2.1% | 1.9% |
| U.S. National nMonth-Over-Month (SA) | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| U.S. National nYear-Over-Year (NSA) | 3.1% | 2.9% |
| *Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow's forecasts dating to 2011. The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014. |
Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.
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