Mortgage Rates Down and Up on Conflicting Data

Mortgage rates declined slightly last week, but have ticked back up in recent days.

Markets struggled to interpret conflicting numbers from the payroll and employment data last week, which showed a large slowdown in payroll growth but also a decline in the unemployment rate, even with labor participation increasing. Other indicators pointed to continued economic recovery, but also continued challenges with supply chain issues and labor shortages. With markets now anticipating the Federal Reserve to be more hawkish in fighting inflation, expectations for accelerated bond purchase tapering and rate hikes are beginning to be priced into rates markets.

Progress on the debt ceiling in Congress, along with economic data releases on jobless claims and inflation, will be likely influencers of any movement in rates for the remainder of this week.