New Year, Same Trend: Mortgage Rates Down Again This Week

Mortgage rates slumped lower this week, beginning the year at their lowest levels in more than four months.

After a furiously paced first three-quarters of 2018 that saw rates rise to seven-year highs, rates dipped sharply at year’s end as growing uncertainty surrounding global economic outlook caused a tumultuous three months in the stock market.

That volatility continued into the new year, as the U.S. Federal government shutdown approached the end of its second week.  The enduring uncertainty continued to send investors toward safe haven in the form of bonds, pushing mortgage rates down.

Recent instability in global financial markets may finally be showing signs of spilling into the real economy. After reaching record levels in October, U.S. consumer confidence declined to a five-month low in December. What’s more, China’s main manufacturing index contracted in December for the first time in over a year and a half, suggesting that U.S.- China trade tensions are softening demand.

Looking ahead, several Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have scheduled speaking engagements in the coming days, and markets will pay close attention for insights into how these recent indicators have affected the Fed’s outlook. The same can be said for the December jobs report, due to be released Friday. Strong job and wage growth data could easily slow the lower movement in rates and provide optimism that the economy is still on strong footing.