After Patiently Waiting, Rates Primed to Fall Following Fed Remarks

Mortgage rates remained flat again this week but are primed to fall following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that concluded Wednesday afternoon.

Another week of net sideways drifts didn’t come without its share of mild fluctuations. After a relatively muted response to the re-opening of the U.S. government, rates jumped around over the past week – dipping after soft housing and consumer confidence data and climbing after a strong private payrolls report.

However, bigger moves are on the horizon. On Wednesday, the FOMC preached patience when considering interest rate increases, as expected, and eliminated any reference to “further gradual increases,” which came to some as a surprise. As often occurs when the FOMC statements catch markets off guard, bond yields fell on the announcement of a  pause on future rate hikes. Mortgage rates seem certain to follow in-step.

The coming days will be telling for rates. Economic data releases continue to play catch-up following the government shutdown, and the next major data event on the horizon is Friday’s jobs report. After private payrolls data exceeded expectations, there’s a good chance that the jobs report – which has the power to move the market by itself -- will follow suit. Either way, after weeks of relative calm, markets are poised for increased volatility.