Mortgage Rates Fall, Somewhat Surprisingly

Mortgage rates fell this week, sliding to touch their lowest level in two weeks. The downward shift in rates, and the bond yields that influence them, has been perplexing for markets as there was not an obvious reason for such a move to occur.

The May jobs report came in under expectations which, at least for now, weakened the likelihood that the Federal Reserve would tighten monetary policy anytime soon – something that would ultimately place more upward pressure on yields. But it’s unlikely that the jobs report alone is responsible for this recent downward move. At a time when most other key economic indicators are revving at a high gear, a modest jobs report should have merely prevented a sharp upward move in rates, rather than stoking a meaningful downturn. Indeed, it appears that underlying market dynamics, and other factors such an increased foreign demand for U.S. Treasurys, are likely also helping to keep downward pressure on yields.

The fact that rate movements don’t appear to be tied to any specific data or developments makes it difficult to chart their path forward in the near term. But with that in mind, this week does feature several events – including key readings on inflation and retail sales and policy statements from both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank – that could place more pressure on mortgage rates to trend higher.

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