Today, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) February 10- and 20-City Composites rose 12.9 percent and 13.1 percent, respectively, on a year-over-year basis, in line with Zillow’s forecast released last month. On a seasonally adjusted (SA) monthly basis, the 10- and 20-City Composites rose 0.9 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively, from January to February. The table below shows how Zillow’s forecast compared with the actual numbers.

“Like pending homes sales numbers yesterday, the Case-Shiller numbers today are generally pretty positive. Behind the flat unadjusted monthly change is a large seasonally adjusted change in home prices. It’s good to have some positive signs amidst some of the sluggish news of late,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “The housing market is showing signs of slowing, but this was expected and is part of a broader return to normal as appreciation slows down, mortgage rates inch up and more balance between buyers and sellers emerges. Homeownership still represents a good bargain for those that can afford it and can find a suitable home. But affordability issues are becoming an issue in a few markets, and those problems will only get worse as mortgage interest rates rise.”

Our forecasting model incorporates previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, as well as Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure resales. To see how Zillow’s forecast of the January Case-Shiller indices compared, see our research brief from last month.