Today, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that the July 10- and 20-City Composites rose 4.5 percent and 5 percent, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. Year-over-year growth in the 10-city index was flat from June, while annual growth in the 20-city index was up slightly from June’s 4.9 percent pace. The U.S. National Index rose 4.7 percent year-over-year, up from 4.5 percent in June. Today’s data were in line with Zillow’s forecasts, released last month.

On a seasonally adjusted (SA) monthly basis, the 10- and 20-City Composites were both down 0.2 percent. The National Index was up 0.4 percent month-over-month (SA). The table below shows how Zillow’s forecast compared with the actual numbers.

“To many observers, the housing market is sending mixed messages right now,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. “Median home values overall continue to grow at a modest clip, but many individual homes have actually lost value in the past year. Sales of existing homes took a step back recently, despite new home sales being the highest since early 2008. For-sale housing is still very affordable in many cities across the country, however on the ground conditions are often difficult, especially for first-time homebuyers. These conflicting trends may be confusing and even frustrating for some, but right now they shouldn’t be too much cause for concern. The market is continuing to heal and find its footing in a new environment, one where highly local factors – including local job opportunities, household formation and income growth – matter more in local markets than national trends.”

Our forecasting model incorporates previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, as well as Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure resales. To see how Zillow’s forecast of the June Case-Shiller indices compared, see our research brief from last month.