The Breakeven Horizon Since 2000: When Was Buying a Home Most Beneficial?

The decision whether to buy a home is difficult. It’s not just the many costs to consider – transaction costs, maintenance, property taxes and homeowners insurance, for starters – but also how those costs might be offset by tax benefits and growing equity. And there’s always alternatives to consider, too: How high are rents? If you’re not using your money as a down payment, what are you doing with it? If you were to invest that money instead, what would that do for your wealth relative to home equity growth?
These factors and more are baked into Zillow’s Breakeven Horizon, which is the length of time you’ll need to live in a property for it to have been more financially advantageous to buy it instead of renting it and investing elsewhere. After breaking even, you’ll begin saving relative to renting, earning what we call an “ownership surplus” (see below for a more detailed definition).
The Breakeven Horizon uses simple assumptions about how local housing and national stock markets will evolve in the future. Much is unknown, of course, but even simple assumptions are powerful. Stronger expected home value growth, for example, can shrink the Breakeven Horizon considerably and make buying a home more advantageous, more quickly. On the other hand, more robust performance in the stock market, coupled with weaker home value growth, can conspire to lengthen the Breakeven Horizon and make renting a better option.
Zillow examined Breakeven Horizons and ownership surpluses (or lingering ownership deficits) earned by home buyers over the last 15 years. Timing and market conditions play a critical role. At what point buyers purchased their home has a big impact on how quickly they have – or haven’t – broken even.
Ownership surplus: The savings earned by a household since the original purchase by buying the property instead of renting and investing the original down payment and any other avoided costs of buying in the S&P 500. The ownership surplus is estimated as the difference between the accumulating net costs of renting, and the accumulating net costs of homeownership associated with the median valued property (single-family residences, condos and co-ops).
Accumulating net cost of homeownership: The annual costs of ownership are offset by equity growth and tax benefits. These net costs are summed from the beginning of the household’s purchase, and include:
Accumulating net cost of renting: The costs of renting summed from the beginning of the household’s lease.
[1] Pulled from Freddie Mac’s historical Primary Mortgage Market Survey results.